The Oscar nominations come out on Tuesday, and seeing as there aren’t any awards shows/major critics circles announcing their wins/nominations before then, I thought there couldn’t be any harm in predicting Tuesday’s nominations now!
Best picture
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Alt: Fences, Nocturnal Animals, Zootopia
Best picture can have anything between 5 to 10 nominations, and I reckon this year, it’ll be these eight.
Best director
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Garth Davis (Lion)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Alt: Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
I’ve mirrored the Director Guild nominations here. Don’t get the big fuss with Snorefest by the Sea, nor Lonergan’s so-called ‘masterful direction’ on it, but I guess shots of Casey Affleck driving and landscapes of Massachusetts qualifies as good directing these days.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Alt: Sunny Pawar (Lion)
My predictions for Best Actor are identical to Nathaniel’s picks, who’s prediction index is wonderfully comprehensive and well-informed. I have Sunny Pawar as the backup choice, just because, look how cute he is!!!
Sexpest Casey Affleck is going to win Best Actor, and I have absolutely no idea why. For a character who’s meant to be wracked with grief, he came across as utterly wooden. He had about three facial expressions in the entire film. #ByeFelicia
My current no 1 for Best Actor is David Oyelowo in A United Kingdom, a film which wasn’t in Oscar’s longlist of films considered because it wasn’t released in the States in time. So discounting him, the next two best male leading performances this year were, in my eyes, Chris Pine in Hell or High Water, and Jesse Eisenberg in Café Society. Sadly, neither actor even so much had the semblance of a campaign behind them.
(But bear in mind I still haven’t seen a lot of 2016 releases; I haven’t seen any of the predicted performances for Best Actor bar The Creep).
Best Actress
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Alt: Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
I’m boldly predicting Taraji P. Henson for Hidden Figures, who didn’t really get that much precursor buzz. But Hidden Figures has done very well at the US Box Office and it sounds like a crowdpleaser, so hopefully that goodwill will earn her a nomination, rather than Meryl Streep, who is undoubtedly a talented actress, but she already has three Oscars and really doesn’t need her 38947983th Oscar nomination. An Oscar nomination for Best Actress would mean so much more to the Empire actress, and boost Taraji's career as a result, so I’m crossing my fingers for her.
I saw Jackie on Friday, and I thought Natalie Portman was great in some scenes (like when she was wiping JFK’s blood off her face, and the part when she was recalling the shooting to the journalist), but she was almost unwatchably mannered in others. I know that Jackie O was quite a mannered person, but, agh, I could see the cogs turning in Portman’s acting and it was just distracting. Overall, I still thought she was good, just uneven, and as such, I have her sixth in my personal Best Actress rankings.
I’m finally seeing La La Land tomorrow, and I promise to try my best to make like Elsa and let Emma Stone’s yellowface past go and focus on her performance. To be fair, I’ve seen the clip where she’s auditioning and gets interrupted, and thought Emma's pupil acting in that scene was on point. (Urgh Emma, why did you have to take that whitewashed role in Aloha?!?!?! I liked you so much before that ;____;)
My current number 1 for Best Actress is still Emily Blunt in the otherwise horrible The Girl on the Train, closely followed by Amy Adams’ understated yet expressive performance in Arrival. But I’m yet to see Elle, and judging from what my favourite bloggers have said about La Reine Isabelle, I’m in for a treat!
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Alt: Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight)
So far in my predictions, I’ve done quite well at avoiding wishful thinking (hence why I didn’t predict Emily Blunt to get a nomination, she deserves it, but her film was such trash that I don’t think the Academy will touch it with a ten foot bargepole).
So allow me this indulgence: I’m predicting Aaron Taylor-Johnson to get nominated for Nocturnal Animals. Despite his Golden Globe win and BAFTA nomination, most people still don’t see him getting nominated for what was quite an in-your-face performance, and such an ugly character. But Best Supporting Actor is THE category to nominate villainous characters, and Tom Ford didn’t spend all that money sending Academy members his fragrance for nothing!
Personally, I loved ATJ in Nocturnal Animals (I’m usually quite averse to OTT acting, but I thought his portrayal suited the character) so I hope it happens! Most people are predicting Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea in his place, but I dunno, maybe it’s my innate aversion to that film (I enjoyed it roughly as much as I enjoyed Casey’s older brother’s oh-so-interesting Batman v Superman), but I didn’t think Hedges was anything to write home about in it.
My personal choice for Best Supporting Actor so far is Alden Ehrenreich’s impossibly charming, show-stealing turn as the dim but kind-hearted cowboy in the Coen brothers’ Hail, Caesar!. A star was made in that turn.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Alt: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Again, mirroring Nathaniel’s predictions here. I’ve only seen one of the performances so far; Michelle in Manchester by the Sea, and she was devastating, easily the best thing about that miserable film, and if it were up to me, the only thing Lonergan's film ought to be nominated for.
My personal pick for this category so far is Michelle Williams’ co-star in another film, Certain Women, Native American actress Lily Gladstone. What a remarkable, lovely, magnetic performance full of yearning pathos, from a relative unknown as well. It's such a pity that the film was so small that not enough people saw it to build enough of a campaign.
A note on Viola's category placement: I'm still yet to see Fences, but going from the comments on Nathaniel's blog, it sounds like her character is one of the more borderline cases between leading & support, so the category 'fraud' isn't anywhere near as brazen as Rooney Mara and Felicia Vikander's last year. Rooney supporting in Carol, what nonsense. (but that's a rant for another day)
Original Screenplay
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Zootopia
Alt: 20th Century Women
Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Alt: Love & Friendship
Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Alt: Hell or High Water
The five films nominated for editing are the ones with a real shot at Best Picture, so I’ve predicted the five films from the Best Picture lineup which I think will have gotten the most votes. Note that these are most certainly not my personal choices; Manchester by the Sea was at least half an hour too long. What editing?!
Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Alt: Hell or High Water
Whatever my reservations with the picture, Nocturnal Animals was great to look at, I'll give it that.
Score
The BFG
Kubo and the Two Strings
La La Land
Moana
Rogue One
Song
Audition (La La Land)
City of Stars (La La Land)
How Far I'll Go (Moana)
Never Give Up (Lion)
Running (Hidden Figures)
I predicted the Lion song just because Sia’s had songs in various other films this year (The Shallows, Finding Dory), so it would be nice if the Academy recognised her contribution to movies somewhere! The fact that the song appears in a (probable) Best Picture nominee can’t hurt either.
Animated
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Your Name
Zootopia
Alt: Finding Dory
Although I liked Kubo and the Two Strings a lot as well, Zootopia deserves this, and I expect it to win (thus marking one of the few results come Oscar night that I won't bitch about).
Foreign Film
It's Only The End of the World
Land of Mine
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Alt: A Man Called Ove
Elle didn't make the final shortlist of nine films eligible for Best Foreign Film, which makes me worried for Isabelle Huppert's Best Actress chances.
Not gonna predict shiz like Sound/Animated Short and stuff like that cos I ain’t got a clue about them and would merely be talking out of my ass (for a change) :P
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